Bottom Lines

Russia cannot relent from its demands here. And it is not simply a matter of national pride, or the political future of Putin and his government.  

The SMO must end with Russian terms being accepted and implemented by ukraine in order to show the entire world the heavy price any country will pay, if they decide to provoke Russia and fight it, and this will discourage any future adventurism against it.

Being lenient and allowing ukrops to stroll out of Kursk unharmed, and agreeing to BS ceasefires will only embolden other cretins to think that they can take on Russia and always get a get out of jail free card when things get bad for them and walk away without consequences. Someone here has to accept loss and plenty of humiliation, and the best candidate is kiev.

If US wants to avoid sharing in this, Trump needs to wake up and distance himself from this.

Nothing in ukraine today is worth saving. The entire place is broken and dysfunctional.  Russia can use this experience as a teachable moment for all those who view it with contempt and think Russia cannot really hold its own. And I'm not only talking about the US, EU and ukrops. Including the supposedly friendly countries who despite their partnerships with Russia still view it as generally inferior to the west, and as a second rate ally.

These countries need a slap in the face, as well. Because even in BRICS, there are those who consider Russia in a lower light than the US. There are at least a few of them that actually wish that the US would do something to put a damper on Russia's successes in ukraine. This is the uncomfortable reality. Russia needs to fear its friends as well, because those friends also have interests somewhere else.

Trump’s tariff temper tantrums are also sanctions in disguise, and a desperate ploy for others to pay for decades of US incompetence and economic mismanagement.

Trump wants others to take on US debt so US doesn’t have to officially default. This is his aim. Anyone who falls for it is stupid, and will be on the hook for debt that isn’t even theirs. The thing for SANE countries to do right now is to call Trump’s bluff. Leave the tariffs alone. Raising them will only feed into Trumps hands. Do not make any deals with Trump. Stop voluntarily buying US products and services, all across the board. This includes individuals, companies, and government institutions the world over.

Simply stop purchasing US goods and services and seek out other sources, or make your own. If most countries do this, it will leave Trump looking very bad, and the US economy looking like a pile of rubble.

What Trump wants to create for the long-term is a self-feeding loop where other countries lend US endless streams of money, AND end up having to pay for doing so, instead of the US. US wants a system where it can create endless debt and get others to pay for it.

Trump's recent minerals deal with zelensky is either a ploy to cotninue to arm ukraine by making it look like it's not a hand-out, or an attempt to stay Russia's hand.

These are both pathetic and amateurish gimmicks through which Russians see through. No deal in urkaine is worth anything unless Russian demands are met and the fighting stops.

The neo-cons have mastered how to manipulate US society. They know what buttons to push. They know how to appeal to Americans sense of patriotism, national pride, narcissism, myths, and have mastered how to harness the ignorance of US society for their own evil purposes.

And even when the neocons plans and wars backfire, they know how to pass it off as a noble and well-meaning endeavor, and find a scapegoat to get themselves off the hook for their insane and sociopathic ideas.

The only real security guarantee that western Europe and EU had, and have to this day, is that Russians are not insane hot-heads like the US. This is what gave Europe true security, not NATO. NATO actually threatens European security and stability. See Yugoslavia in 1990s, Iraq and Afghanistan interventions, and Libya. These interventions created millions of dead, as well as millions of migrants, and angry terrorists who descended onto Europe and started causing problems. If Russia was as violent and bad as the westoids say,  Europe would be a wasteland right now. Russian goodwill and patience is the best guarantor of European security. Europe should fear the US far more than Russia. The last 3 years have been an example of this.

Russia cannot, and must not agree to any deals that give NATO any kind of reprieve whatsoever. Russian aim must be to ensure the continued weakening and dissolution of the EU and NATO, since Europe is Russia’s existential enemy, and has been for a millenium, and Europe will not stop trying to subjugate Russia every chance it gets. This is why Russia must blunt and take away whatever tools and opportunities the west may have at its disposal to ensure this never happens.

Only way that there will be any sort of deal is if Russia gives up on any of its core demands. But if this happens, Russia will weaken its position and ensure that the west will exploit this concession and weaponize it to its full advantage against Russia. This is an opportunity for Russia to consign NATO into the ashes, and it must not do anything to give it any sort of a 2nd life. If Russia falters now, whatever crisis befalls it in the future will be the fault of the Kremlin. There can be no deal just for the sake of a deal because Trump wants it to look good by a certain date. No US-style Korean scenarios and half-ass temporary, tentative measures that leave everything in suspended animation and leave the ukraine post-maidan intact and allow it to be rearmed by the west.


Russia must not 'lean' toward the US and make some surprise deal that will leave us scratching our heads just for the sake of pleasing Trump and some promises whose shelf life doesn't go beyond January 20, 2029.

But the next few weeks could be a dangerous time. Because there are some scenarios that may come to pass with no deal:
1. Trump walks and withdraws aid and lets Russia do whatever (unlikely)
2. Trump will stop negotiating with Russia, ramp up aid to ukraine, and passes more sanctions (most likely)
3. Trump walks away, and directs kiev and EU to amp up terrorism and sabotage against Russia (likely)
4. Trump walks away, withdraws all aid, and in desperation kiev launches a major false flag attack that leaves many dead and wholesale destruction somewhere in ukraine (somewhat likely)
5. Trump ends talks with Russia and threatens NATO protection for ukraine and sending of US/NATO soldiers there (somewhat likely)

Russia must stand its ground and not compromise on its demands, because in the long-run they are good for everyone.
Because the bottom line is this:

The US, including the current Trump regime, want a ceasefire and to freeze the conflict in ukraine along the current front. US and EU want to preserve the Kiev regime, it’s Russia-hating nature, and reconstitute the ukrainian army to use it against Russia later. These are their aims. US and EU don’t want to address the root causes of the conflict and will not agree to Russia’s demands.

Zelensky doesn’t want the war to end. He wants it to continue so he can stay in power, get more weapons from the west, and hope for NATO to join him in fighting Russia.

There is no use for Russia to continue to talk to the US or anybody else. A battlefield victory is the only way Russia will accomplish its quite modest aims.